Sebastian Funk
https://epiforecasts.io
Former and current members of the epiforecasts group (https://epiforecasts.io):
Akira Endo, Alexis Robert, Ciara McCarthy, Emil Iftekhar,
Friederike Becker, Hannah Choi, Hugo Gruson, James Azam,
James Munday, Joel Hellewell, Joseph Palmer, Kaitlyn Johson,
Kath Sherratt, Liza Hadley, Manuel Stapper, Nikos Bosse,
Robin Thompson, Sam Abbott, Sophie Meakin, Toshiaki Asakura.
Collaborators at LSHTM and elsewhere.
Models are a tool to combine data (what we know) with assumptions and theory (what we think) to learn about what we don’t know.
When data is abundant, models and analytics can generate insight without many additional assumptions.
When data is sparse (e.g. early in an outbreak), modellers need to make more assumptions to generate insights.
January 2020: Can COVID-19 be controlled by contact tracing?
Probability of control depends on intensity of transmission and contact tracing effort.
We illustrate the potential impact that flawed model inferences can have on public health policy with the model described […] by Joel Hellewell and colleagues, which is part of the scientific evidence informing the UK Government’s response to COVID-19.
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”
George Box
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”
Forecasts vs. Scenarios
Image from: https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/
Assess quality of models by how closely prediction matches reality
1-week ahead forecasts produced by SPI-M for SAGE in the UK.
Observed behaviour as predictor: improvement of forecasts, but only once age-specific reporting is taken into account.
https://github.com/epiforecasts/forecast.vocs
https://github.com/jbracher/branching_process_delta
Sherratt et al., in progress
Any model of the future is a prediction and can be evaluated as such.
Assess utility by asking recipients of modelling advice?
“The Rt estimates generated by the EpiForecasts team were used extensively by the WHO COVID-19 Analytics unit. They formed a core part of two routine analysis pipelines […] regularly presented to the incident management structure at WHO headquarters, including senior management, as well as regional and national WHO offices.”
Scoping review on evaluation of modelling work with Johanna Hanefeld, Emil Iftekhar, Julia Fitzner, Duaa Rao, Aleena Tanveer.
Slides at